The New Year = Big news in 2010 that won’t seem so big in 2011
By Andrew Dyrli Hermeling
Everyone knows that the media [and bloggers] have a way of blowing certain stories out of proportion in an attempt to make their existence a little more justified. Sometimes they are right (swine flu) and sometimes they are wrong (bird flu). In the spirit of the new year I have decided to post my top five 2010 stories that will prove to be blips rather than booms a year from now.
5. Kim Jung-il announces successor – Considering that his successor, Kim Jung-un has been raised in the same intellectual cave where his father was raised, the vowel in their respective names will be the only real change.
4. Ground Zero Mosque – This story is already disappearing for a number of reasons. First, it isn’t really a mosque. Second, many Christian leaders are actually in support of it since they have the foresight to know that any restriction of religious freedom could someday come back to bite them in the butt. Third, have you seen pictures of the building…? It looks pretty awesome.
3. Ban on Earmarks – Congress vows to crack down on earmarks… then proposes eye-droppers to assist in Gulf cleanup. NEXT!
2. WikiLeaks - Simply put, WikiLeaks has proven to be all foam, no beer. In fact, the only thing I find truly offensive about the whole situation is the attention given to it. For example, anyone who pays the slightest bit of attention to global politics knows that Sunni Muslims make up the majority in every Muslim country except Iran, Iraq, Bahrain and Azerbaijan (although I will give a free pass to those who didn’t know the latter two). A quick Islamic history lesson or even a quick perusal of current Iraqi state building will make it quite clear that there is little love between these two groups. So obviously Iran makes Syria nervous. What will Julian tell us next, that there is tension between Catholics and Protestants in Ireland? Keep stories about Qaddafi’s nurse where they belong, in People magazine.
1. The Tea Party – I know this sounds like my usual Tea Party bashing, but I promise that it is not. They mobilized voters in 2010 with great success. However, regardless of what politicians get done or leave undone in the new year, the Tea Party has had its moment. Allow me to explain. Let’s play pretend…
Scenario #1. Boehner et. al. follow to a tee (pun intended) the mandate handed to them and the moderates who were swayed to vote Republican by the spectre of deficit will consider the job done and move on. Furthermore, just as Bill Clinton heeded the people’s cry for a balanced budget in 1994, Obama and the Democrats are forced to do the same in order to have even a prayer in 2012. While many voters agreed with the Tea Party on issues of spending, they are not ready to embrace their more reactionary views on race or the environment. Thus, with spending under control, moderates do what they do best, swing back and forth holding the radical wings of either party in check.
Scenario #2 (the most likely scenario) – If the Tax Cut Compromise is any indication, the Tea Party endorsed candidates that were elected will prove no match for politics as usual and both parties will find themselves bogged down by the usual unwillingness to cut their preferred spending. With Dems still holding onto the Senate, it is unlikely that the new Health Care Reform will be cut down while the House will continue to resist any cuts in military spending. Furthermore, reasonable people will finally realize that while the Tea Party sure does complain a lot, in the end they are unwilling to do what it takes to actually fix the problem. (In all fairness, Glenn Beck does make the point that anyone who advocates spending cuts must be willing to cut military spending, although he is surely in the minority here.)
Either way, I don’t see much of a future need for Tea Party energy
The Fickle Majority
By Andrew Dyrli Hermeling
Cable news may refer to November 2nd as a midterm election, but I propose we rename it the season of the fair-weather voter. It seems that every leap year, Americans remember that their votes have four year implications. Why then do most voters suffer from a crippling bout of Fickle Fever whenever the midterms come along? Despite the fact that votes are being cast for six-year termed senators and governors managing multi-billion dollar budgets, voters seem to be trapped in the ‘what have you done for me lately’ voting pattern that is more appropriate for the localized elections of representatives. The legislative ramifications of senatorial elections are arguably more profound than the election of a president, yet they are treated with far less respect when they fall on midterm years.

Marco Rubio, Tea Party Candidate for US Senate
To discuss this more concretely, let’s focus on the issue du jour, government spending. As with most voters, I fear the specter of an unmanageable national debt. However, when one particular issue becomes magnified to the point of being the sole criteria for voting, a candidate’s other policy stances (or lack there of) become diminished. While such a one sided approach to voting may be appropriate for those being elected to the House, the fact remains that while the issues of importance will change, those elected to the senate will remain. Such short sightedness can have dangerous ramifications.
Single-issue voters have always been around and always will be. I cannot foresee a time when card-carrying Greenpeace or Focus on the Family members will vote against their respective causes. And invariably, one advocacy group spends an autumn on cloud nine every two years as the national mood closely resembles the causes that they have advocated for so steadfastly. I am sure many life-long John Birch Society members are sticking their tongues out at all those who called them irrelevant. But their time will come, just as it did for Pro-life voters who now find their former cause célèbre a mere footnote on campaign websites.
And thus the strongly convicted are left with only prayers for the support of the Fickle Majority. And those who find the tempestuous winds of the election cycle blowing their dreams away from them must see their deepest fears coalesce into a stark reality: senators and governors finding their way into office on a stance that will matter far less to voters in a year or two. Which leads me to my final question. Are we truly willing to risk the progress made in exchange for a balanced budget?
Goldman Sachs and Fraud
By Austin
Big story today: Goldman Sachs is being sued by the SEC. Read this for background. Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism has a nice little explanation.
The long and short of it (no pun intended)? Goldman Sachs may have intentionally sold investors products they knew would fail, and had a different department in the firm set up to cash in when they did. This is called shorting.
It works like this. Goldman Sachs sold Credit Default Obligations to investors. These are basically “insurance policies” on debt that Goldman Sachs had. Say Sachs gave a loan to party A. Sachs needs to have X amount of collateral according to certain rules. But Sachs wants that collateral to invest in other things. So, they ask their investors to sell them “insurance” on that collateral. If part A defaults, the investor will be on the hook for the money. If they do not, Sachs will pay an insurance premium plus fees to the investor (making them happy), while not having to have collateral.
So, they sold these CDO’s to investors (the product was called Abacus 2007-AC1). Then, they acted as a broker to traders inside their firm, particularly the hedge fund manager John Paulson. He then short sold these products. The catch? John Paulson was the one who chose the mortgages in the CDO’s in the first place.
Think about this for a second. A short sale works like this:
a. An investor has some security, like a CDO.
b. A broker, like Goldman Sachs, lends this security to a trader.
c. A trader, in this case Paul Johnson, sells these securities for a certain price (say $100 a share), because the trader expects the price to go down.
d. When the price goes down (say to $80 a share), the trader buys them back at the lower price (pocketing the difference of $20), and gives them back to the investor.
The problem? The CDO’s were chosen by Paulson! In other words, he knew what was in them, and then bet they would go down in value! And when the mortgages started defaulting, and the investors were on the hook for the money, the value of the securities plummeted. As they did, Goldman Sachs ate up the profits from short selling.
What a world.

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